Regional job-turnover and industrial policy. a note on a potential time pattern of regional industrial policies and their job effects - the case of the german city-state of bremen

Many regions have experienced long-run economic fluctuations generated by the life cycles of their dominant industrial clusters. During the downswings in the 1970s and 1980s, proactive structural policies were typically launched in German regions to combat job losses in their core clusters and to create new jobs in new industries. With respect to the German State of Bremen, this paper provides empirical evidence of: (1) a long-run regional downswing; (2) the potential job effects of proactive regional industrial policy programmes in terms of increasing regional employment, by safeguarding jobs in the regional core industries and creating new jobs in new growth industries; and (3) a time pattern in the job effects, which are related to the different generations of programmes.     

Economic analysis of the impact of adopting herd health control programs on smallholder dairy farms in Central Thailand

The economic impact of adopting herd health programs for mastitis and reproduction by small-scale dairy producers of Central Thailand was assessed using a policy analysis matrix (PAM). Following a reduction in the incidence of bovine disease on adopter farms, an increase in private net profits is observed. More importantly the social costs of supporting dairy farmers is reduced; the PAM effective protection coefficient was reduced by 35% for mastitis program adopters and by 44% for reproductive program adopters, indicating improved social efficiency of dairy policy. Other indicators of efficiency and policy implications are discussed.     

The relevance of currency risk in the EMU

We investigate how the elimination of intra-European exchange risk may affect international financial markets using a conditional version of the International CAPM. We estimate the EMU and non-EMU components of aggregate currency risk and document significant exposures to both. The premium for EMU risk is positive and associated with exposure to the French, Italian and Spanish currencies. The premium for non-EMU risk is consistently negative and accounts for most of the aggregate currency premiums. In the 1990s, exposures to EMU risk declined significantly while exposures to non-EMU risk increased. Hence the adoption of the Euro is unlikely to have a large impact on aggregate currency risk premiums.     

Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?

This paper investigates the extent to which condominium apartment prices are set in an efficient asset market. Unlike previous work that focuses on the time-series properties of measures of excess returns, the analysis is framed in terms of the changes in observable house prices over time. More precisely, the paper develops and applies a test of the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations, perfect markets, and no risk premium in the Vancouver condominium apartment market. The empirical results provide significant evidence against the joint null hypothesis. On average, ex post house price changes move in a direction opposite to their rational expectation. This approach offers a methodological advantage over the standard efficiency literature and is shown to provide a more powerful test of market efficiency than conventional return regressions. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize the time-series properties of deviations of condominium prices from those predicted by the risk-neutral rational expectations model, using cointegration and random coefficients techniques. Deviations in house price changes from their (risk-neutral) rational expectations are time varying, stationary, and related to the stage of the real estate price cycle.     

Planning food services for a campus setting

Providing appropriate food services in a campus setting is increasingly important due to more demanding customers and because clients have less time to go off-campus when they need to eat. Using a university campus as an example, this research looks at customer satisfaction with existing food services and explores various methods for determining where to locate new facilities. This campus currently has great needs for additional food services, and it is shown clearly where additional food services are required. Also, the methods used are compared in terms of their effectiveness in finding the solution.     

养老保险金替代率研究

养老保险金替代率是指一定地区当年离退休(含退职，下同)人员的养老金平均水平与该地区当年职工平均工资水平的比率，其是否合理，将影响到养老保险制度安排和政策取向。养老保险金替代率目标的确定，将受到一个国家或者地区的社会保障水平和经济发展水平等因素的影响。按照中国对基本养老保险制度改革的总体思路，未来基本养老保险金替代率目标确定为60％左右。目前，中国基本养老保险金替代率目标已经接近制度改革的目标，北京市的基本养老保险金替代率明显低于全国水平。企业退休金的替代率又明显低于事业和机关单位的退休金替代率，并呈现持续下降的趋势，应当设法进行遏止。     

Technical analysis as the representation of typical cognitive biases

The present research provides a justification for the popularity of the technical analysis. It finds that financial analysts firmly discriminate between two types of technical signals—those based on typical cognitive biases and “empty” signals that sound like a technical analysis but are without any connotation with psychological inclinations.At the same time that they treat them differently, different analysts rate these items very similarly. These results suggest that the popularity of technical analysis is associated with its relation to the typical cognitive biases of humans.     

城镇化水平与农民收入的相关性研究

城镇化水平与农民人均收入存在着密切关系，即城镇化水平越高，农民人均收入越高；城镇化水平越低，农民人均收入越低。因此，要增加农民人均收入，就必须提高城镇化水平，特别是提高中西部省份的城镇化水平。文章主要运用统计学中的回归分析方法来阐述这一观点。     

乡镇财政困难：现状、原因、出路——以安徽省为例

乡镇财政困难主要有收入下降、支出膨胀以及债务负担沉重等方面的表，就其原因从其关联性有根本原因、主要原因、重要原因、直接原因以及导火索等五个方面。对此，笔者认为解决乡镇财政困难的出路可以在分析原因的基础上，结合其表现来具体分析。